ING THINK economic and financial analysis | ING Think
WEBWhy an ECB rate cut next week is less obvious than markets think. An ECB rate cut at the October meeting is less likely than markets are currently pricing in. Romania. NBR review: Better treat uncertainties seriously. THINK Ahead: Central banks and their distracted boyfriends. FXNew Zealand.
Forecasts - ING Think
WEBLatest forecast update: 24 September 2024. Growth (GDP) Inflation (CPI) Policy rates. 3 month rates. 10-year yields. FX. Commodities.
Latest and Most read - ING Think
WEBPoland’s central bank keeps rates unchanged; easing likely on hold until 2025. 2 October 2024, 14:09.
Where now for the US 10yr rate? | opinions - ING Think
WEBAug 28, 2024 · The market is discounting an effective funds rate at 3% by the end of 2025 (versus 5.33% now). Market rates have already moved significantly in anticipation of cuts to be delivered. The 10yr SOFR rate is at 3.4%. That's down over 100bp in just three months.
Rates Spark: Bear flattening pressure persists, for now
WEB1 day ago · Bear flattening pressure persists as near-term Fed cuts and the ECB terminal rate are reevaluated. Friday’s payrolls data is still reverberating in markets. The bear flattening continued today with the Treasury 2s10s curve briefly flattening out completely. Less than two weeks ago it had peaked at 22bp. The discussion in US rates markets is ...
AI Monthly: Hungry for power | articles | ING Think
WEBOct 1, 2024 · AI Monthly: Hungry for power. The rise of generative AI has led to massive increases in computing power and data centre demand, potentially doubling power use by 2026. This growth raises carbon emissions, with AI models varying in energy efficiency. A targeted tax on electricity could encourage low-carbon energy use to reduce emissions.
Surging US jobs suggests the Fed needs to tread carefully
WEB5 days ago · Job surge beats all expectations. The September jobs report is unambiguously strong. US non-farm payrolls rose 254k versus the 150k consensus and there were 72k of upward revisions to the past two months of data (the range of expectations was 70k up to 220k). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, which only one person out of 71 ...
Rates Spark: A week of decisive US data ahead - ING Think
WEBSep 3, 2024 · It’s a decisive week for rates given the data that is lined up in the US. Releases will kick off with the ISM manufacturing today, which is seen improving slightly but staying in contractionary territory. The focus is especially on the employment component ahead of the payrolls figure later this week. With the inflation issue seen as largely ...
Rates Spark: If payrolls come in line with consensus, then forget …
WEBSep 5, 2024 · Markets are actually trading as if we are going to get a sub-100k payrolls outcome. We face into Friday's payrolls report with the 2yr and 10yr yields peppering just under the 3.75% area, and a c.40% probability for a …
50bp cut from the Fed as it looks to move rates to neutral quickly …
WEBSep 18, 2024 · The Fed’s new forecasts show it still expects the economy to continue growing at 2%, and that unemployment will rise to 4.4% from 4.2% by year-end and stay there for 18 months, but it has trimmed their inflation numbers.