Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Thursday that he will impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States. That is, if President Donald Trump follows through on a pledge to boost import taxes by 50% over the South American country’s criminal trial against his predecessor,

As Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump trade blows, the person they are fighting over has sent mixed signals to investors trying to divine who will blink first.

The pairing of right-wing brawn and dominion theology have proved potent in Brazil, with results that might look familiar to Americans.