Social Security COLA is now estimated at 2.3%. Experts say Trump’s tariffs could raise it further — or cause a recession.

On April 2, President Trump unveiled his much-anticipated "Liberation Day" tariff policy, which introduced a sweeping 10% global tariff, as well as higher " reciprocal tariff" rates on countries that have historically run negative trade balances with the U.S.

COLA estimate is pegged at 2.2% after March's inflation report. But experts say Trump tariffs may influence the final COLA.