The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.

Markets bet on a September Fed rate cut at Jackson Hole, but sticky inflation, Trump tariffs, and Powell’s framework review could derail expectations.

Investors continue to price in a 0.25% cut from the Federal Reserve next month, although they have lowered their expectations about that.