The Brent/WTI spread has historically ranged between $4/bbl and $8/bbl, but it can expand or contract based on factors related to U.S. and international supply and demand conditions. For example, the Brent/WTI spread hit nearly $14/bbl in April 2011 when protests sparked market fears of significant oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.

In this month's outlook, EIA educed its 2025 forecast for US Lower 48 states (L48) crude oil production from last month by 1% to 11.3 million b/d. This reduction reflects a downward revision to EIA's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecast.

Adding to the complex market dynamics, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels during the week. This decline was less than the anticipated drop of 2.1 million barrels, marking the second consecutive weekly decrease but suggesting that demand may not be as robust as expected.