Why Trade Data Shows Big Swings in 2025 – And What It Really Means In 2025, U.S. import volumes surged sharply in Q1 as businesses stockpiled goods ahead of new tariffs, pushing cumulative imports well above 2024 levels. After tariffs took effect, imports dropped significantly – for example, major ports saw an 11.5% decline in November. This pattern creates short-term "wiggles" in trade balances and GDP figures. Economists note these timing shifts reflect anticipation rather than lasting changes
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